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Health & Fitness

November Rain

'Cause nothing lasts forever
And we both know hearts can change'

Governor: The chorus of Gun's N' Roses popular ballad November Rain sums up what many on the left in this State are desperately hoping for this year. They are hoping that they have been able to distract enough people so that the great strides we have made in the last four years will be forgotten.

Governor Walker is facing a couple of positives looking at this November's election from an analytical standpoint. Typically in WI off year elections (without a presidential race) have belonged to the GOP as of late. However, 2012 was a reminder to all that Wisconsin is still very much a blue state when it wants to be. But this coming fall the tide has turned nationally. Elections prognosticator extraordinaire, Nate Silver, has repeatedly called this November to be a resounding GOP success. This bodes well for Walker this year as that analysis has quite a bit to do with predicting turnout. Now the blue fist could show up again in higher than expected numbers but it is unlikely.

Find out what's happening in Waukeshawith free, real-time updates from Patch.

However this election, as all elections do, will come down to motivating the base, raising money and turning out the vote. The GOP has always been able to do a good job with the first two but voter turnout is still lacking. The latest romping in 2012 gave the leadership in the GOP a lot to think about. Walker has answered with his new "21st century door knock" Facebook program. We will see how it works out, but don't think for a second that this program isn't being used here as a dry run. A dry run for both Walker eyeing a 2016 Presidential bid, and by Reince Priebus eyeing a nationwide need for 2016.

Attorney General: This race is essentially Schimel vs. some of the worst that the left has to offer. Whoever runs against Schimel in November (probably Dane County DA Ismael Ozanne) will be well funded but this should provide virtually the same result as the top of the ticket (Walker/Burke). So if Walker wins by 5 points, I would expect to see a Schimel win by just as much, maybe a little more.

Find out what's happening in Waukeshawith free, real-time updates from Patch.

State Senate: The State GOP will probably hold the Senate this year, there are a couple of open seats that present some interesting opportunities for the Dems to pick up a seat or two; but the Senate, much like the Assembly, is probably going to be safe. The effectiveness of Gerrymandering cannot be overstated. The GOP taking over State government in 2010 will probably keep the GOP in power in the Senate and Assembly for another 6 years.

State Assembly: See above for similar analysis. However there is one race in particular, right here in Waukesha County, that is particularly interesting. The polarizing choice for Assembly leader, Bill Kramer, appears to be coming back to haunt the County GOP as well as Statewide party bosses. With apparently 6 people in the GOP running in this August 12ths primary, this should make for an interesting election. I am of course talking about the 97th Assembly District.

James Wigderson has been doing a great job keeping up with all the latest in this race. I will spend some time writing about this race in particular in the coming weeks, along with other issues of local interest. As of now the candidates are:

  • Alderwoman/County Supervisor Kathleen Cummings (Waukesha, City of & County of).
  • Alderman Aaron Perry (Waukesha, City of)
  • Joe Banske Former Supervisor (Waukesha, Town of)
  • Scott Allen Former Alderman (Waukesha, City of)
  • Brandon Rosner, City of Waukesha Resident
  • Vincent Trovato, City of Waukesha Resident
There are many fascinating aspects of this race with current vs. former government officials vs. private citizens who have many strong ties with the GOP Party bosses. Monday, June 2nd is the deadline for all paperwork to be submitted in order to legally appear on the ballot. So beginning next week we shall see exactly who is on the ballot and can discuss each candidate in full. Looking forward to posting and conversing with the community here.
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