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Progressive & Social Democrat

Wisconsin Politics — A Look At the Future

Anyone claiming that the recall election and the failure of the political left to cut short the governor’s term was a major loss is seriously deluded. We could go on and on attempting to analyze the contributing factors that led to the stunning defeat, but it would be an exercise in futility. Those of us on the left have to accept the results and look to see what is on the horizon for future issues and contests.

The general election coming up in November will determine the direction of political discourse for the following two years. If the Democrats are able to capture a majority in one of the two legislative chambers, probably the State Senate; then the Republicans agenda will be put on hold until they can again gain complete control. However, if the Republicans gain control over both chambers, then the agenda will move forward. The major issues that Republicans are interested in are as follows:

  • Modification or termination of the recall law
  • Converting the state to a Right to Work state
  • Privatization of government services
  • Modification of Public Education
  • Electoral College Assignments

Recall Law:  This may be the only piece of legislation to gain bipartisan support. There will be a strong push to remove recall from the state constitution or at least modify the conditions for recall. One major argument for removal of the Recall Law is that it is redundant to Section 17 of the State Constitution, impeachment.

Right to Work: This may be one of the most contentious issues. The main argument will be focused around economic recovery and job creation. Evidence will be presented that the RTW states were less impacted by the last recession and recovered faster. This is a key piece of legislation for the supporters of the right. If passed, this would be the final nail in the coffin for organized labor in the State of Wisconsin and significantly weaken organized labor nationally. Therefore, organized labor will ramp up to fight the legislation, again bringing national attention to the state.

Privatization:  This has been a key goal of many on the right. In the push for reduction of the size of government, privatization will be presented as the tool to accomplish it. Along with the push to privatize, there will be a move to change the current state retirement program. The political right wants to eliminate the fixed benefit retirement to a 401 k style retirement. This will be a hard fought battle between the remaining public workers and the various administrations.

Another selling point for privatization is that it will increase the formation and staffing of private enterprise to take over the service delivery of the previous state provided direct services. The state will transform itself from service delivery agencies to contract management and supervision agencies. Only essential services will be retained by the state and I foresee conflicts arising between the state government and the federal government

Modification of Public Education:  Just as in the battle over privatization, the right will push to extend the Charter School Program and Voucher Program state wide. Also, income caps would be removed and all citizens would be able to participate. One argument for such a move will be the creation of new education providers, including for profit providers. There will be a change from “brick and mortar” education to cyber schooling in many areas. This will require a statewide graduation examination and much teaching will be to the test.

Electoral College: This is an important change for the right. In a state that is so evenly divided between the right and left, a winner take all system, such as the state has now; is seen as a weakness. The proportional assignment of electors would increase Wisconsin’s importance in electing Republican presidents. The right is willing to give up electors from the major urban areas, Milwaukee and Madison, for the surety of capturing all the rest of the state electors, giving them a consistent majority every four years.  

What I have outlined is only the tip of the iceberg. There will be individual pieces of legislation that will have significant impact on selected programs and policies. I can foresee a continued modification of regulations around the DNR, insurance, tort reform laws and major changes to the entitlement programs.

If the left wants to remain viable, it is time to get prepared for the upcoming regular legislative session after the fall elections. I would strongly suggest that research be done and arguments constructed and perfected. The political right will come at the left with their “guns ablaizen”.

CowDung

4:06 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

Not sure why the electoral college changes would necessarily favor the right over the left in electoral votes.

When the republicans are in power, it would seem that the dems would go from getting zero electoral votes to whatever is proportional to their share of the vote. Either way, both parties get a share of the electoral vote that reflects the vote of those in their party.

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Jay Sykes

4:40 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

I seem to recall some Constitutional questions on the 'Winner Take All' v. 'Apportioned' Electoral Votes rules. Anyone here a 'student' of the Electoral College?

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Lyle Ruble

4:44 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

@CowDung...It makes sense given the fact that the Republican legislature drew the new legislative districts to optimize Republican power and permanency. Only two of the 10 electoral votes would be winner take all. With the way the congressional districts are laid out the Republicans can expect to have a permanent 4 or 5 electoral votes for every presidential election. It essentially takes Wisconsin out of play in close presidential elections. We will become a backwater state and won't receive attention during presidential elections.

CowDung

4:19 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

Not sure that the 'privatization' and 'public education' points are anything different than what we've seen over the past several years.

We already have a 'virtual school' in Wisconsin, don't we? If it is effective at getting kids educated, then virtual schools deserve to play a part in our public education system. Many states already have a HS exit examination. Teaching to the test seems to be more of a failing on the teacher's part, rather than the fault of an exam requirement.

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Lyle Ruble

4:54 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

@CowDung...The move for privatization will increase and a number of traditional state services will be contracted out. Some major issues with privatization is loss of immediate control and the system attracts fraud. Also, a reduction in service level is almost certain. The states in the south are notorious for contracting irregularities and fraud.

I am not opposed to cyber school where it is appropriate. What I am essentially opposed to is the statewide voucher system and unlimited charter school system. It will drain too much money from the public system and in general weaken the state's education system. Tests are not the answer and one only needs to look to Texas to see how the test based system has failed.

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CowDung

9:54 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

Lyle:

If the 'public system' is failing, then I see nothing wrong with having a statewide voucher program. We need to start thinking outside of the usual 'public school' model and embrace a 'public education' system. We want to educate the public effectively. If we cannot do that with the public schools, then we should make the private schools available to those students and offer them as the alternative.

Not sure why privatization will necessarily result in reduction of services or fraud. If it makes sense, we should look to privatize. Where it doesn't make sense, the government can provide.

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Lyle Ruble

7:17 am on Saturday, June 9, 2012

@CowDung...Regarding education, although it matters who is providing the teaching and educational services; what is broken is the structure of education. As we have discussed before, we need to restructure the entire institution and probably adopt more of the European model. We have done a deplorable job of preparing our youth for the "real world". When I graduated from high school in the early 1960s, graduates were prepared to go into industry or onto college. We spend billions every year simply warehousing students. Before going onto service providers, I think, we need to reform education from top to bottom, revising the curriculum and mission of state supported education.

I am opposed to state funds going to religious schools. I don't think that a non-secular model is appropriate. Religious education should be kept separate, perhaps adapting a system like they have in the state of Utah.

James R Hoffa

6:43 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

@Lyle -

I was personally looking forward to the issue of tax reform, as Wisconsin is still the 7th most heavily taxed state in the nation.

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Lyle Ruble

6:51 pm on Friday, June 8, 2012

@JRH...Rob Vos came out today that he wants to take on tax reform during the next general session. He is taking about abandoning the progressive tax system enacted in 1911. He wants to go for a more flat tax system. It will be no surprise that I am not in favor of leaving a progressive tax system.

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Lyle Ruble

8:38 am on Saturday, June 9, 2012

@JRH...It may be too early to take on tax reform legislation. Until we can stabilize and know for certain what government services are going to cost, then we can't determine what the revenue requirement needs will be. As I see it, it is a two step process and service cost must be determined first. One of the problems of the past was to grow service and then decide how it would be funded. Services must be rationalized before addressing funding. Our governor decided to cut funding first and then rationalize services.

Right now the Child Protective Services in Milwaukee County is attempting to perform their services at a 75% staffing level. Because of budget restrictions, the state recently decided that they would reduce salary for entry level social workers and now, because of the nature of the job, they can't keep social workers. They are continually asking for higher production and service delivery with too few and not fully trained bodies. I know that Vos wants to continue to cut revenues and it will have similar results that has already occurred in CPS in Milwaukee.

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James R Hoffa

2:01 am on Sunday, June 10, 2012

@Lyle -

I disagree as to your assessment of Walker's approach in this regard. He demanded efficiencies in government, which are fully attainable with the right leadership being present at every level. As you're already familiar with my proposed federal tax code, I'll just say that I'd like to see the state adopt something similar, wherein everyone has some skin in the game but no one demo is made to shoulder a majority of the burden.

As to Milwaukee County - they created many of their own problems by perpetually voting in a board beholden to special interests which have lead to highly inefficient government - you can't blame the state for that. Start cleaning house on the local level if you don't like the way they're managing their local revenue collections and spending budgets.

If the rest of the state is going to be expected to jump in and save localities from their own poor management decisions, then I'm also going to have to start advocating for a Governor Snyder like 'Emergency Manager Law' being enacted here.

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Lyle Ruble

8:37 am on Sunday, June 10, 2012

@JRH...I think I need to clarify something. CPS in Milwaukee County was taken away from the county in 1996. The state took over direct management and control of CPS with state CPS social workers providing child protection services in 1997. This has been a direct service under the name of The Milwaukee Bureau of Child Welfare and has provided CPS to Milwaukee County every since. This action was taken as a means to comply with a federal lawsuit settlement. Of the original 99 social workers hired in 1997, only 10 remain. With the reduction in starting pay has created conditions where all that can be attracted to join the agency are new BSWs and they burnout in short order. Child Protection Services is one of the most difficult fields in all of child welfare and requires highly trained and dedicated CPS social workers. This is one of those areas that needs to be rationalized and actions taken to staff up CPS services to meet the documented need. This agency receives around 50,000 referrals per year, somewhere around 5,000 to 6,000 investigated for neglect or abuse and 2,500 substantiated. Continue cutting of the funding will eventually push this agency's effectiveness back to where it was in 1996, when through a lawsuit, the county lost the service provision.

Bob McBride

6:07 am on Saturday, June 9, 2012

Good analysis, Lyle. On a couple of the issues you selected.

Right to work: Right to work, essentially, is about being able to compete with other states for jobs that, for whatever reason, are not of a variety that can be outsourced overseas. Basically, those, along with domestic jobs that haven't been eliminated by technological advances, are what we're left with in this country. Political interests aside, the decision becomes: Do we stand our ground and support unions out of gratitude for past benefits they may have provided while simultaneously continuing to allow job development elsewhere, or do we face the reality of the situation and do something about it?

Privatization: I think we have a choice here besides strictly saying we're going to privatize everything, but that choice still involves something the left will find distasteful - instituting business style best practices into the public sector as it relates to expenditures. I've sat in on enough open local government meetings and watched enough money spent on what are essentially no-bid purchases and short term contracts to see that even at that level we could be saving what would amount to significant amounts of money just by instituting simple, common sense practices that the average small business owner (or homeowner for that matter) uses on a daily basis.

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Lyle Ruble

7:42 am on Saturday, June 9, 2012

@Bob McBride...I have been doing my research on RTW and I have worked in both environments. I agree with you that if the Midwest economies are to be revived, then we must become active in finding solutions. I am not sure, at this point, that RTW is the be all and do all to provide the solution needed. I do know that Iowa picked up a lot of manufacturing based on their RTW status. Another thing that I have picked up is that the explosive growth in RTW states is a bit misleading. Most of them began so far down that any movement upward appeared to be phenomenal. Other data indicates that RTW state wages are lower, but that is also in areas where the cost of living is also lower. However, in RTW states they have other tremendous challenges especially in public education, poverty and healthcare. This is one of those issues that needs to be fully vetted and approached rationally.

I also agree that there are probably many service functions that could be successfully privatized. However, rather than a rush to privatize everything; I think, that we should approach the process with deliberation and careful action. Moving to quickly based on ideology would be a major mistake, privatizing and then going back to de-privatize. It would be a waste of time and resources, creating a bigger mess than the one we are trying to fix.

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Bob McBride

12:20 pm on Saturday, June 9, 2012

Lyle, if RTW isn't the way to attract jobs (even though it's working elsewhere), what is? Have you got any hard data, anywhere, that indicates that there's a benefit to businesses to move to a state (or if they're already in that state, to create more jobs there) where it's more expensive to operate? If so, how are they similar to WI? What have we got to offer here as an attractive alternative to locating in a lower cost state?

I agree it would be nice if everyone could make a living wage and not have to work more than 8 hours a day and have enough disposable income on top of that to fuel the ancillary businesses provide the necessities and other things people making a living wage (as we've come to define it) spend their money on. But how do you do that these days? And how long are we willing to pretend we're losing ground because people don't like Scott Walker and the Republicans before we wake up and address the problem head on?

As for privatization, as I said, I'd rather see an emphasis placed on employing best business practices in areas where there are opportunities to do so (and I do believe there's plenty of low hanging fruit in that area) rather than worrying about farming everything out at this point. I do think that by forcing localities to pick up more of the burden, more attention will be paid to those issues than is now.

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James R Hoffa

2:04 am on Sunday, June 10, 2012

Precisely McBarrett!

Work on achieving government efficiency on all levels of government first - there is much that can be done here!

Vicki Bennett

8:03 am on Saturday, June 9, 2012

Indiana enacted some of the education reforms of the right about 10 years ago. They have some of the worst schools in the nation. I'm wondering if Charter Schools and privatization of education is going to further disfranchise not just the poor, but all of our students.

Indiana has also suffered a huge number of job losses. It's infrastructure (i.e., roads, etc.) are in disintegrating as well. If Indiana (one of the first to enact the right wing economic agenda) is a test case for what is going to happen to Wisconsin, we have hard times ahead.

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Lyle Ruble

8:42 am on Saturday, June 9, 2012

@Vicki Bennett...This is precisely why I am broaching these issues now. People have to have an opportunity, early on, to research these issues and potential actions. I would much prefer that we are less emotional about issues and approach them in a much more rational manner. If the right claims they are fiscally rational, then the only way to convince them is through rational information and ideology is left behind.

Greg

10:15 pm on Saturday, June 9, 2012

Lyle, OK you toss out your opinions on what the right is going to do. I'm sure there is more, but this is the agenda items that you fear.
Do you have any information about anything that the left may be working on? Are they working on anything other than obstruction? I have not heard a single plan coming from their side of the isle since 2010. Nothing on jobs, zip. Your side now has the Senate, it's time to start talking about their plans. After all we do pay them to do something.

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Lyle Ruble

10:30 pm on Saturday, June 9, 2012

@Greg....Nothing to fear about the right's agenda; it is what it is. As far as the Democratic agenda since they probably have control of the Senate, nothing is going to happen. I really don't think a special session will be called and then the senate will be determined in the November election. I see the Republican right setting the agenda for quite some time and the Democrats will be left to reacting only.

David Tatarowicz

2:58 pm on Sunday, June 10, 2012

I don't think the Recall election(s) signaled acceptance of the Walker agenda, or the future for the state or country, or what will happen in November.

There was a chance for a referendum on the Walker radical right wing policies, but that opportunity was lost due to ineptness on the part of the Unions and the Democratic Party.

The Union issue was certainly a catalyst for the Recall --- but it was NOT the only issue for those who are not happy with Walker's March to the Sea.

But the Unions made it seem that way by picking Falk early and in utter and complete stupidity on both her part and the Unions -- having her sign a pledge to repeal the restrictions on collective bargaining. That alone probably turned off 30% of the voters, who understandably figured this was a One Act Dog and Pony Show.

The Democratic Party in coordinating 4 Senate Recalls showed the intelligence of a Pet Rock !!

Why would they want to stir up the Republicans in Republican STRONGHOLDS (except Racine) --- the Democratic Party assured that Republicans who may have even been willing to throw Walker under the bus, were going to go to the polls to save Their Local Senator !!! Dumb- Dumber -- and Dumbest.

I personally am and always have been Pro-Union, and have worked both as a Union Member and as Management of Union Employees.

But I think the Unions have too many of their members in powerful positions in the Democratic Party, and help to lead it down a Tunnel Vision Path to Chaos.

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