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New Poll Puts Barrett Ahead by 17 Points Over Falk in Recall Primary

New numbers released by Marquette University have Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett leading former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk among registered voters. Barrett and Walker in a dead heat, poll also shows.

 

With less than one week to go until the Democratic primary for governor in the recall election, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett leads the field by wide margins among voters who will cast ballots in the primary, according to the latest poll numbers from Marquette University.

His closest rival, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, trails by 17 points; 38 percent to 21 percent. Secretary of State Doug La Follette pulls in 8 percent, state Sen. Kathleen Vinehout comes in at 6 percent, while 19 percent of those polled were undecided.

The margins are wider than they were just a month ago, when Barrett led Falk, 36 to 29 percent. Vinehout and La Follette each were at 8 percent in March.

Against Republican Gov. Scott Walker in a potential June showdown, Barrett leads among all registered voters polled, 47 to 46 percent. Among likely voters, however, Walker gets the nod by a point, 48 to 47.

The other Democratic primary candidates all trail in a contest with Walker among registered voters: Walker leads Falk 49 to 42 percent; and he leads both La Follette and Vinehout at by a 49 to 40 percent. Walker also leads in polls of likely voters by almost identical margins.

Results were released Wednesday at Marquette University during a session of "On the Issues" with Mike Gousha and professor Charles Franklin. The poll was conducted from April 26 to 29 of of 705 registered voters by both landline and cell phone.

A lot has been made recently of the "protest" candidates, Franklin pointed out.

"The numbers show an interesting point about the gap between what political strategists think is a good idea and how voters really feel about it," he said.

Among all voters, a full 59 percent disagree with running "protest" candidates. Those numbers break down to 72 percent Democratic; 54 independent; and 53 Republican.

Barrett leads Falk 40 to 21 percent among men and 36 to 20 percent among women.

Overall,  Barrett does better than Falk in just about every demographic. Falk is strongest with a lead or a smaller margin of deficit among public sector workers in labor unions.

Gousha asked how recall has touched voters' lives, and Franklin had a slide for that question, too.

Since January 2011, pollsters asked, have you done a variety of things? The results are :

  • Talk to family & friends (58);
  • Persuade others (50);
  • Talk w/coworkers (39);
  • Sign petition – including last summer, too (38);
  • Put up a yard sign/bumper sticker (26);
  • Give money (20); and/or
  • Attend rally (18)

What's funny, Franklin added, is that almost one-third of those polled said they've experienced some negative feedback from talking about politics so those conversations have stopped.

An important point he wants people to remember is that these polls are really a snapshot of how voters feel at the time the questions are asked.

"Polling doesn't determine voters' opinions and their votes, it's the voters' opinions and votes that determine the polls," Franklin said. "There's no question this is too close to call and why both sides need to be concerned about voter turnout."

Related Topics: Doug La Follette, Kathleen Falk, Kathleen Vinehout, Scott Walker, Tom Barrett, Wisconsin Recall Election 2012, and Wisconsin Recalls

Greg

1:54 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

These numbers are not a surprise, nor do I think they mean anything for Walker. The real campaign will not start until after the primary.

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lu

1:57 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

I don't believe any of their polls.

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morninmist

2:00 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Barrett is coming on strong.

John Nichols ‏ @NicholsUprising

New #wirecall #s help Barrett on 3 fronts: he's got primary lead, looks to be strongest vs. Walker, and jobs issue is key. @edshow @WeGotEd

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Greg

2:11 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

If this is true and the election is a referendum on collective bargaining, then Barrett is beating the collective bargaining queen, thus the referendum has failed.
The unions can kiss collective bargaining away if Barrett would win over Falk.

morninmist

2:01 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Good on Tom.

Mike Lowe ‏ @MikeLoweReports

Tom Barrett calls on @GovWalker to answer why he's set up a criminal defense fund. #WIrecall #WIunion #WIpolitics http://pic.twitter.com/sfptDOnZ
View photo

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atthec44

6:55 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

I would like to see Tom Barrett explain why he's waging a war on women. He pays women in his mayor's office 75% less than he pays the men in the same office. He's also been campaigning with the head of the state police union, Jim Palmer. This is the same Jim Palmer, who according to court documents, has a history of physical violence towards women.

Bren

3:12 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

To me the purpose of the recall is to find a replacement to salvage the rest of Walker's term.

It's funny. I don't think of Scott Walker as a Republican. The Republicans I know, they won't sugar coat it for you but if someone needs help they are there. Like my father. Scott Walker is as far from the example of true conservatism (as I have experienced it) as it is possible to be, off the charts.

Concerning the ALEC collective bargaining issue, I don't think there's much that can be done midway through the budget cycle. Sensible people need to look at what's working and what isn't. If that had happened in the beginning instead of dropping "the bomb" Walker probably wouldn't be facing recall right now. And a little less rubber-stamping in the legislature would have made a lot of difference too. Every constituency is different and needs to be respected. While not every need or interest can be met, they can be recognized and decisions made with respect and moderation. These are not words that describe the Walker administration.

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CowDung

3:40 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Bren:

Can you please clarify what you mean by this?

"If that had happened in the beginning instead of dropping "the bomb" Walker probably wouldn't be facing recall right now. "

Walker was told, before he even took office that the unions would never make the concessions that Walker was planning to ask for. It was clear, even before Walker's first day in office that the unions were not going to negotiate or make any concessions to help the budget ride through the economic downturn.

David Tatarowicz

3:30 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

@Greg How do you come to that conclusion that collective bargaining would not come back with Barrett ?

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Greg

4:43 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

It was his stance early in his campaign. He only changed direction a few weeks ago. I think that the union's strong arm tactics on Barrett will come back to bite them in the butts. After all, Barrett did use the Act 10 reforms and I don't see any evidence that he has any platform to make the changes back. If collective bargaining was an actual Barrett issue I think he would be waving it like a flag. Almost none of the recall effort is about collective bargaining, it is about everything else the dems. can stir up, including the kitchen sink.
I think Barrett restoring collective bargaining is the same as Obama closing GITMO (the first thing Obama was going to do), it sounds good during the campaign but it ain't gonna happen.

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morninmist

4:50 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

No Greg
You are wrong. Yes Barrett agreed with the kicking in of money for health care and pensions but NOT with taking away collective bargaining as a whole. There is whole lot more to collective bargaining-working conditions, safety factors, hours. etc etc that Walker took away.

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Greg

4:59 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Barrett used them as a whole, so I see no basis of fact in your statement. What's in it for Barrett? Ask yourself that question. If he is Governor he will have more on his plate than he can handle. We will have him under the same scrutiny that you have afforded Governor Walker. It won't be like hiding in the mayor's office, I gaurantee that.

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CowDung

5:08 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

How exactly can you have union members 'kick in' money for healthcare and pensions without taking away their ability to collectively bargain? Union leadership made it very clear to Walker that they were not willing to make concessions. Taking away collective bargaining was the only way to go...

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Dirk Gutzmiller

7:05 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

@Cowdung - Barrett has stated he is for collective bargaining of government employees. However, as anyone that has worked within union contracts knows, everything is not readily negotiable. Also, the unions have been self-realizing that they cannot get everything they desire if they are to survive, and Barrett as a moderate Democrat realizes he needs to be and has been a strong negotiator with the unions, even the badge unions. And the public unions even agreed to paying more for their benefits under Walker, but Walker overreached as sociopaths are apt to do, and blew his career in the first few weeks. Barrett is smarter, wiser, and more experienced than Walker to make such incredibly stupid straight to hell moves as Walker did.

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Adam Wienieski

9:56 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

@Dirk, the unions agreed to concessions only after their polling showed the taxpaying public was strongly in favor of it. At the same time Union members are down to about 13 percent of the workforce and for the first time in history a majority of them work for the government.

Private sector companies who pay their union workers too much can lose market share and go out of business (unless they get bailed out by Obama.) Public employee unions have a perverse incentive to grow government. Between 2002 and 2007 overall spending by the states rose 50 percent faster than inflation; it would be interesting to know when the public employee unions had the "realization" they can't get everything they want.

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CowDung

9:29 am on Thursday, May 3, 2012

Dirk:

The unions really didn't agree to pay more for their benefits under Walker. When polling was unfavorable, they made statements to that effect, but didn't follow through. MPS and Kenosha are two examples of this. They passed their contracts before ACT 10 became law and chose to not have workers pay towards their benefits. Recently, when the union at MPS was asked to reopen their contracts so that workers would start making contributions to their benefits, they refused.

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Greg

1:09 pm on Thursday, May 3, 2012

Golly, who saw this coming?
http://portwashington-wi.patch.com/articles/jobs-is-top-issue-for-democrats-in-primary-collective-bargaining-is-last
Job Creation Top Issue for Democrats in Recall; Collective Bargaining is Last...
And I would say last = off the table. Barrett winning the primary is a massive loss for the public sector unions.

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MrsPeel

11:53 pm on Friday, May 4, 2012

@Tom Barrett... no, it's not bad, rather it is quite a meaningless, non-rigourously analyzed collection of opinions.

This survey has been referenced elsewhere. CEO magazine doesn’t say much about who the respondents are; do they represent large corporations, small companies, or small businesses?

Putting that aside there is some interesting information which can be gleaned from the survey.

The ten lowest ranked states for business climate are home to 225 Fortune 500 Companies while the ten highest ranked states are home to only 140 of the Fortune 500, with Texas being the one to pull up the numbers.

The fifteen lowest ranked states are home to a total of 256 Fortune 500′s while the top 15 are populated by only 157 of the big companies.

So, it would appear that the “perception” of the survey respondents does not match “reality”.

One could also draw the conclusion that these people don’t put their “money where their mouth is”.

The validity of this survey is at about the same level as the myth that Gov. Walker had anything to do with moving Wisconsin up in the rankings.

Craig

9:14 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Those who support Walker should still vote in the primary. I don't understand the Barrett/Walker poll- seems idiotic to think that would even be close.
The question is who to vote for?

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Craig

10:43 pm on Wednesday, May 2, 2012

I would suggest voting for Falk. Polls show Walker beating her by a landslide, while too close to call vs. Barrett.
I am even going to accept a ride to the polls from the DNC. As a twist, I am walking out the polls from a different door, and walking home! Leaving the driver to wait a little longer for me to prevent him from driving one less Libby to the polls.
:-P How cool is that idea?

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MrsPeel

11:59 pm on Friday, May 4, 2012

@Craig... I seriouly doubt that the DNC is providing rides to the polls. Actually it is George Soros who is sending a fleet of limos for that purpose.

It's also a bit strange, isn't it, that after spending milllions of dollars on TV spots that Walker is in a dead heat with Barrett? With all the good that he has done for each of us Wisconsin residents one would think that he would be ahead by 20 points or more.

It's even more strange as the pollis conducted by the same individual who previously conducted polls while he was supported by the that notoriously leftwing Bradley Foundation. Strange doings here.

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ACE

12:40 am on Monday, May 7, 2012

We vote for Walker in the primary. Isaac Weix too.

Joseph

6:46 am on Thursday, May 3, 2012

Doesn't matter who faces Walker, they will all lose against him in the election.

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Greg

1:17 pm on Thursday, May 3, 2012

Or we could bet Windmills, but they won't be worth squat when Walker wins.

Menoparent

8:02 am on Thursday, May 3, 2012

It's clearer now that more independents are now making their decision about this election, if this poll is accurate. And the more Walker ads that come out and the more money he gets, the more sour tasting he becomes to democrats, republicans and independents and adding more money to his defense fund doesn't help him either.

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morninmist

9:10 pm on Friday, May 4, 2012

Money can not buy people power.

AFT Local 4848 ‏ @WPEC4848

Great photo from today's Green Bay Press Gazette. #wiunion http://fb.me/1KiR5Zgwl

Luke

12:58 pm on Sunday, May 20, 2012

Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but I'm in too much of a rush to find out. I just wanted to report that the Milwaukee Journal has endorsed Scott Walker.

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